Wheat long bias on stranded Black Sea supply
Russia's Black Sea export capacity is largely offline while USDA still assumes a recovery, and the desk leans long wheat into the October WASDE.
Published Sep 17, 2026. Positioning may have changed.
The desk holds a long bias in CBOT December wheat, with low conviction. The case rests on supply that exists but cannot currently ship, and on a USDA balance sheet that has not yet accounted for how long that may last. The view runs into the October 9 WASDE. It is directional only and carries no targets.
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